Tesla Saves

Hello,

This is a live dashboard showing the real-world safety impact of Tesla FSD — today, and in the future.

The numbers aren’t exact. No estimate or forecast ever is. But the data is public and the reasoning is sound (and shown at the bottom of the page).

I suspect the only reason Tesla has never published anything like this is that a bunch of anti‑Elon idiots would completely miss the point and sue Tesla for “lying about safety.” Sad.

Anyway. I’m not connected to Tesla. And I think the world should know what Tesla is doing.

It really is wonderful. Thank you, all Tesla people — makers and users.

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Lives saved(estimated)1

To dateLive
154Next life saved in 05:22:50
2026 forecast
120Total at end of 2026: 185
2027 forecast
336Total at end of 2027: 521
2030 forecast
8,726Total at end of 2030: 13,195

Serious crashes avoided(estimated)2

To dateLive
18,840Next serious crash avoided in 10:53
2026 forecast
14,543Total at end of 2026: 22,541
2027 forecast
40,872Total at end of 2027: 63,413
2030 forecast
1,061,260Total at end of 2030: 1,604,874

Collisions with pedestrians, cyclists & motorcyclists avoided(estimated)3

To dateLive
393Next collision avoided in 14:22:43
2026 forecast
304Total at end of 2026: 471
2027 forecast
853Total at end of 2027: 1,324
2030 forecast
22,157Total at end of 2030: 33,507

Injuries prevented(estimated)4

To dateLive
9,222Next injury prevented in 04:34
2026 forecast
7,119Total at end of 2026: 11,034
2027 forecast
20,008Total at end of 2027: 31,042
2030 forecast
519,512Total at end of 2030: 785,623

Medical insurance claims saved(estimated)5

To dateLive
$138,241,823+$4.33 every second
2026 forecast
$106,705,226Total at end of 2026: $165,393,463
2027 forecast
$299,897,450Total at end of 2027: $465,290,913
2030 forecast
$7,786,931,721Total at end of 2030: $11,775,661,100

Life insurance claims saved(estimated)6

To dateLive
$12,636,265+$0.40 every second
2026 forecast
$9,753,601Total at end of 2026: $15,118,115
2027 forecast
$27,412,717Total at end of 2027: $42,530,832
2030 forecast
$711,779,821Total at end of 2030: $1,076,377,480

Crash-related tax dollars saved(estimated)7

To dateLive
$146,754,794+$4.60 every second
2026 forecast
$113,276,164Total at end of 2026: $175,578,439
2027 forecast
$318,365,220Total at end of 2027: $493,943,659
2030 forecast
$8,266,453,182Total at end of 2030: $12,500,809,647

Notes

Tesla may argue that the number of lives saved should be higher than the current 154. And if we purely compare all FSD miles with all U.S. miles in one lump, the number of lives saved would be higher: 185 to date. But crash rates differ a lot by road type: highways are much safer per mile than city streets, for every car. And FSD does more of its driving on highways than the average car: 58% of its miles, against about 40%. Lumping all roads together gives FSD credit for that easier mix. So it felt more accurate to compare FSD with the average U.S. car on highways and on city and other roads separately, then weight each by where FSD actually drives. That gives 154.

Miles per serious crashAverage U.S. carFSDFSD safer by
Highways1,269,97210,479,5338.3×
City and other roads500,7643,771,6587.5×

“To date” counts every mile driven on FSD (Supervised) and updates live. “2026 forecast” adds the miles driven so far this year to a forecast for the rest of it. Later years are forecasts. “Total at end of” adds everything since FSD launched, up to the end of that year. Dollar amounts are in today’s dollars.

  1. 1Lives saved (estimated)

    In 2023 the U.S. had 41,025 traffic deaths and an estimated 4,989,713 serious crashes, so about 1 in 122 serious crashes (0.82%) is fatal. Lives saved = serious crashes avoided × 0.82%, or one life for every 108 million FSD miles.

  2. 2Serious crashes avoided (estimated)

    Tesla reports how many miles are driven between serious (airbag-deployment) crashes, for highways and for city and other roads (see the top of these notes). Weighted by where FSD drives, it avoids 1.13 serious crashes per million miles. To date FSD has driven 16.7 billion miles.

  3. 3Collisions with pedestrians, cyclists & motorcyclists avoided (estimated)

    Tesla also reports collisions by what was hit. FSD hits a pedestrian, cyclist or motorcyclist once every 978 million miles, against once every 40.7 million for the average U.S. car: 0.024 collisions avoided per million miles. Tesla does not split this by road type. Many of these collisions are also serious crashes, so the two rows overlap.

  4. 4Injuries prevented (estimated)

    In 2023, 2,442,581 people were injured in police-reported crashes, or 0.49 per serious crash. Injuries prevented = serious crashes avoided × 0.49. This counts every severity. About 8% of them are serious to critical (MAIS 3–5): 711 to date.

  5. 5Medical insurance claims saved (estimated)

    In 2019, crashes caused $30.9 billion of lifetime medical costs across all injuries and deaths, or $1,008,388 per crash death in today’s dollars (up 19% for medical inflation). 88.5% of that is paid by private insurers and by Medicare, Medicaid and other public programs, so claims saved = lives saved × $892,424.

  6. 6Life insurance claims saved (estimated)

    $22.0 trillion of life insurance was in force in the U.S. at the end of 2024. Spread across every adult, insured or not, that is an expected payout of $81,573 per death. 52% of adults own life insurance. Claims saved = lives saved × $81,573.

  7. 7Crash-related tax dollars saved (estimated)

    In 2019, federal, state and local governments paid $29.5 billion of crash costs: public medical programs, emergency services, lost tax revenue and public assistance. Spread across U.S. serious crashes and adjusted for inflation (up 32%), that is $7,789 per serious crash. Tax dollars saved = serious crashes avoided × $7,789. Medicare and Medicaid payments are counted here and in medical claims, so the two rows overlap.

  8. 8Forecasts (2026, 2027, 2030)

    FSD’s daily mileage grew 2.96× over the past year, from 15.3 million to 45.3 million miles a day. Forecasts assume that growth continues every year and that FSD’s crash rates stay where they are today.

    YearFSD milesShare of U.S. driving
    202612.9 billion0.4%
    202736.3 billion1.1%
    2030941.3 billion26.7%

    The further out, the less certain: keeping this pace until 2030 needs many more cars running FSD than exist today. Unsupervised driving and robotaxis could speed growth up; running out of eager buyers could slow it down.

Limitations

  • Tesla’s data is self-reported.

    It is not independently verified. It is the only source of FSD mileage and crash rates.

  • The baseline is the average U.S. car.

    Compared with the same Teslas driven manually with their standard safety features on, FSD would have saved about 34 lives to date. With those safety features off, a Tesla on the highway crashes about as often as the average car.

  • Today’s crash rates are applied to all past miles.

    Early FSD versions were less capable, so the to-date figures are likely too high.

  • Deaths and costs use U.S. averages per crash.

    Teslas protect their occupants better than the average car, so fewer avoided crashes may have been fatal.

  • Dollar figures are averages, not claims data.

    No insurer or government has reported these savings. The dollar rows overlap and should not be added together.

Sources